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Memo to Snyder: Don’t stop the radical reforms now!Doug Hoffman’s loss, and the future of the throw-out-the-RINOs movement
November 4th, 2009 | 
Author: 
Dan Calabrese
Even though Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman lost the race for Congress in New York’s 23rd Congressional District last night, many conservative activists believe they still won.
Point made, victory denied.
As a result of the successful backlash against the nomination of liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava, the Republican Party establishment has surely realized the trouble it will bring upon itself – not only in NY23, but everywhere else – if it continues to throw its weight behind candidates who don’t support the policies favored by Republican voters.
I think they’re right. I think party leaders across the country will think twice before getting behind candidates the base is likely to reject.
But in the end, it doesn’t do you a lot of good if the candidates you prefer don’t get elected, and taking down faux Republican Scozzafava and Democrat Bill Owens at the same time proved to be a bridge too far.
In order to avoid similar “victories” all across the country in 2010 – the kind where you make your point but you accomplish nothing of substance – the conservative movement would be wise to consider that, at the local level, there is more to this than identifying the “RINO” and the “true conservative” and making the right choice.
To listen to much of the activist base, you’d think the party’s luminaries chose Scozzafava over Hoffman for the GOP nomination simply because they hate and distrust low-tax, small-government, social conservatives.
“Our base. We hate them! Nominating Dede will be a great way to thumb our noses at them!”
So it is imagined that the GOP establishment was thinking. The base also presumes that the choice of a moderate over a more conservative candidate must be question of electability, with the party honchos concluding that the more conservative candidate must surely be incapable of attracting a big, “inclusive” majority.
The truth is that, much of the time, such choices have little to do with anything so strategic or ideological. And before the base gears up to spread this movement across the country, it should know that.
Compare the backgrounds of Scozzafava and Hoffman. Beginning in 1993, Scozzafava served as a town official, and later as mayor, of Gouvernour, New York, before being elected to the state assembly in 1998. She may not be a very conservative Republican, but she has been a very prominent Republican in her area for quite some time now.
She clearly had formed key relationships with party officials, and had earned her wings throughout the years in their eyes. Hoffman had not.
Both parties have their little ways of doing things. The Democrats’ way of doing things is fairly simple: Ask the union what to do, and do what you’re told. The Republicans’ way of doing things is usually to make people pay their dues and wait their turn, and then, when an opening occurs, to pick the people who have done so.
I am not defending this as smart or strategic in any way. I’m simply telling you that this is what they do. Anyone who has spent much time around Republican electoral politics at the local level knows this. It’s not as much about ideology as you think it is.
When the party chairman needs to find a candidate to get behind in the event of an opening, the choice has much to do with who the chairman knows, and with whom the chairman feels comfortable.
Scozzafava had a decade-plus record as a legislator. She had proven her ability to win elections. Those are the things party chairs look at.
Doug Hoffman, by contrast, has never held elective office of any kind. While many see this as a positive because he is not a career politician – and I’m not saying they’re wrong – he lacked most of the background party regulars look for when choosing a candidate to back.
Activists who think it should have been so clear – Hoffman is the true conservative so you support him – completely ignore all these other factors.
And while his stated positions on issues provided hope he would have been a better congressman than Scozzafava or Owens, he had no experience as a legislator. Thus, we had no idea how effectively he might have crafted or participated in the making of legislation. We had no idea how effective a committee member he might have been. We don’t know how well he would have handled constituent services.
To the people who actually vote in a congressional district, these things matter.
That’s why, if activists hope to take NY23 nationwide in 2010, they might consider that the best place to find conservative candidates is not among the outsider set, but among experienced legislators who have paid their dues, proven their ability to win elections and amassed a record of supporting conservative policies.
It may be that you can’t find one everywhere you might like to, and if that’s the case, you might end up getting behind an outsider with no political experience, and touting his or her outsider credentials.
But don’t be surprised if the party regulars simply get behind someone they know, and when they do, don’t be so sure it’s about ideology. It’s just the way Republicans do things. Conservatives who want to win these nominations need to start years earlier earning the chance. They can’t expect to ride in with the cavalry from the outside, especially on a third-party ticket, and win.
Doug Hoffman couldn’t, even in a safe Republican district, even on a big Republican night, even after all the GOP establishment and conservative activists nationwide got behind him.
Because “true conservatism,” for all it offers, is not enough to make you a winner.
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Posted in Dan Calabrese
67 Responses to “Doug Hoffman’s loss, and the future of the throw-out-the-RINOs movement”
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Well written. I would be interested in your viewpoint concerning the role of “who can access big money” in the nomination process. It appears to me that party bosses look at who has access to the cash as the significant consideration instead of philosophy. Big money seems to be tied to big votes. I don’t agree with that but would welcome insightful perspectives. Unfortunately, big money is the bane of both parties who have veered from educating and activating voters. Having “hired hands” to manipulate voters and using 30 second sound bites seems to be the order of the day.
I disagree. This new political environment is more about principle than just winning. that’s what both parties have been focused on and this is where it’s gotten us. Principle, just as truth, will win in the end.
On target Sir with a very well written article. As a former GOP County Chair I agree that the candidate selection process generally begins from within.
However due to the curent uprising against Hope and Change do not be suprised if the GOP nationwide starts taking a more serious look at both inside and outside conservative potential nominees.
Actually, I’d rather lose an election with a true conservative, than win with a “RINO”. A Republic works better with robust differences in political philosophies. If both parties are basically the same, why bother to even have an election? This was a good first step for the people. As a Republican, I don’t want to have to vote for someone in my party that’s Democrat-lite. And this nonsense of “bi-partisanship” and “working together” is BS. Every time the politicians of both parties agree to something, you can bet the farm we’re all about to get screwed.
Lynn said: “Actually, I’d rather lose an election with a true conservative, than win with a ‘RINO’.”
Why do you accept that those are your only choices? My column is about how to win with what you call a “true conservative.” Wouldn’t that be better?
Great article but how can you call Scozzafava a “moderate?” She was endorsed by the Daily Kos. She was to the left of the liberal Democrat on the ticket. She was the candidate of big education, big labor, and big abortion. What exactly was “moderate” about the woman?
In today’s politics words don’t seem to have meaning. The constitutional, motherhood and apple pie conservatives are labeled “right-wing extremists” while porno-pushing, sodomy supporting, pro-child killing liberals are described as “progressive.”
We live in the age of big semantic lie. Wordsmiths like you should be more careful to use terms accurately.
To all who would “rather lose an election with a true conservative, than win with a ‘RINO’”…
How do you think Ronald Reagan won in the 1980s? Did he win it with *just* true conservatives? Or did he present a message that was open to a big tent of people? Did he ONLY support *true conservative* candidates, or did he support moderates as well.
If you’d rather lose an election than elect a RINO, I hope you like President Obama and the Democrat Congress. Because you’re not always going to get what you want in every congressional district.
Your column says NOTHING about “how to win with what you call a true conservative”. Lynn is right we have had ENOUGH of Arlen Specters and Olympia Snowes.
Scozzafava was not “moderate” Republican. She was the Recipient of the Margaret Sanger Award!
If the GOP establishment supported Hoffman, he would have won. I believe that because at heart the Demoblicans and Republicrats get their money from the same corporations and foundations. Corporations and groups how don’t give a @#$% about the principles of the US or natural law.
Spot on Dan. Was getting Dede off the list for one year so a Fiscal Conservative Repub can run in 2010 a good idea? Yes. My guess is there is a laundry list of solid candidates.
I will throw the biggest name mentioned in Grass roots out there, Sarah Palin and even her record was 6 years of Mayor of the largest growing town in Alaska (was even President of the Mayors Association).
Bottomline run solid candidates.
Faustina, that’s not the point. The Republican establishment properly backed their County officials in the North Country of New York (you know, the people who actually *live* in the district) who chose Scozzafava to be the nominee. To openly oppose her would have been throwing their political operatives under the bus, which would have sent the entirely wrong message and caused problems of its own.
I don’t see what’s wrong with a national party backing the candidate that the local people nominated to run for the office. The fact of the matter, as well, is that while Doug Hoffman inspired all this hoopla, the only people who were really hot for him were people outside of the NY-23 district, in large part because he himself is not a resident, nor did he make an attempt to address issues at large in that district (such as being an advocate for Fort Drum, redevelopment of business, etc.)
All politics is local. And at the end of the day, the people of NY-23 chose the only local candidate on the ballot, the first Democrat in over 130 years.
[...] was that he was perceived as a carpetbagger. He lives outside the district, had basically no relationship with the local party bosses, and, when questioned by the area newspaper, famously showed little [...]
You are totally wrong. We only had 30 days and we turned Doug Hoffman around and forced that idiot Dede out to everyone’s amazement. We are on a mission to save this Country and we will not be detered by stories like yours, Rinos like McCain, Graham, etc. We are serious and we are on the march. The women of the Country are pissed off and don’t mess with us. Enough is enough.
Excellent column.
Unfortunately, many grassroots conservatives have little idea of how the Party works and even less interest in finding out.
They refuse to join it, support it, and help move it to the right. Instead, they stand outside of it and demand that it change for them.
No organization changes for outsiders. Only members can change it.
I don’t see how it is a loss. I mean, no one even heard of the guy until a couple of weeks ago. I think he did exceptionally well and probably would have won if DeDe’s name was not still on the ballot and if she had endorsed and campaigned for him.
DeDe was especially unique in her total lack of Republican values and was a no brainer battle to fight. However, now watch Rubio in FL and Devore in CA to see if the following holds true of party support.
“…but among experienced legislators who have paid their dues, proven their ability to win elections and amassed a record of supporting conservative policies.”
As a conservative, I see your point, BUT: Dede is a big-government leftist. The GOP at a minimum must stand for less government and lower spending and taxes. We can disagree about abortion, the exact scope of gay rights, gun rights, the list goes on. However, our fiscal and constitutional house is burning to the ground and I for one am not inclined to argue about the silver ware or the china pattern.
Translation: The “moderates” who lost the majority that conservatives won are now entrenched, and if you want to nominate conservatives instead, then start at the bottom and wait your turn.
Sorry. Wrong answer!
I have a better answer. Conservatives who support candidates like Hoffman, get involved in the party NOW and throw out the people who nominated Scozzafava and people like her, making sure they are not in the position to nominate more Scozzafava’s next year.
“So it is imagined that the GOP establishment was thinking. The base also presumes that the choice of a moderate over a more conservative candidate must be question of electability, with the party honchos concluding that the more conservative candidate must surely be incapable of attracting a big, “inclusive” majority.”
No, the base assumes that the Republican elites themselves are not in touch with the base and as such, believe republicans must be just like those elites….often clueless RINO’s who go along to get along.
You guys make this way to complicated. The fiscally responsible (conservatives and independents) just wants the GOP to listen and not try to run toward a fake middle that is left of center. It is so damn hard to get the GOP elitists (who seem detached from reality as bad as liberals) to listen that you about need to cost them an election before they wake up and even then they come up with reasons not to listen that rival Pelosi’s. It’s great to play the numbers safe if it gets the win. The problem occurs when voters watch them perform after the win. A democrat with an R label then hurts the credibility of the republican party when Republicans try to win more power. That supposedly “safe” formula has cost republicans a lot of power. GW Bush stated there is no conservative movement. This line of logic resulted in him not being very popular with anyone. Under his watch, the GOP blew all credibility on fiscal responsibility. So being an “extreme” moderate is not such a great idea either. You just piss off everyone. It is a losing formula because it is so short sighted. You can’t make any real gains if GOP leaders do not start looking at long term strategy. They need to be the party of fiscal conservatism and smaller government. No we don’t need a litmus test on social issues if they can just do that much. If our “electable” candidates can’t do that much then they undercut the credibility of Republicans long term and are not much good to anyone. Its not really “throw the RINOs out”, although that rolls off the tongue easier. It is much more about “open your f’ing ears idiots”. If they did that much then it wouldn’t be so bad if they started out life as a RINO. But if they can’t do that then they have only themselves to blame for a third party and yes dems would love it. Although who would be able to tell the difference between them at that point? If the GOP faults anyone but themselves for 23 then they need to be b!t*H slapped. At least the liberal didn’t win.
nonsense. we’ve got a state rep where I am that is just like Dede and he’s a nightmare. He threatens to switch parties once in a while and votes to the far left. with tight margins he wields a lot of power and sinks gop legislation over and over. we don’t need that. moderate, sure – Dede far left, no.
do you really believe Hoffman could not have won if the RNC had not screwed this up so badly and been active in anti-hoffman campaign?
“A political party cannot be all things to all people. It must represent certain fundamental beliefs which must not be compromised to political expediency, or simply to swell its numbers.”
…. Ronald Reagan (1975)
The benefitst of the NY23 outcome;
1) Owens will NEVER betray the grass roots Republican base!
2) Owens will NEVER give bi-partisan cover to democrats for bad legislation (cap-n-tax et al)!
3) Owens will NEVER pull the rug out from under Republican leadership in a floor fight regarding principle!
Yet Owens overall voting record will have little to distinguish it from that of the RINO we defeated.
jd
Do Not Feed the RINOs!
Dan, You couldn’t be more wrong. The Republican Party has been drifting center left for quite some time. How many RINO’S do we have to list for you? The party has left us, not we the party. The few that are still conservative make little noise. Almost all are saying we must enlarge the tent. But what they really want is for us to move the tent to the left. Big difference. They want us to abandon social conservative values and embrace liberal values so the party can compete for liberal voters. Some game plan. Nope, I will keep my 45 year Republican card, but only vote for Conservative people with real conservative values. Be dam with the RINO’S. If the party fails, so be it. Good riddens, Hello new Conservative Party. May God save our nation. IIChron. 7:14
“How do you think Ronald Reagan won in the 1980s? Did he win it with *just* true conservatives? Or did he present a message that was open to a big tent of people? Did he ONLY support *true conservative* candidates, or did he support moderates as well.”
John…to refresh your memory..
“A political party cannot be all things to all people. It must represent certain fundamental beliefs, which must not be compromised to political expediency, or simply to swell numbers…And if there are those that cannot subscribe to these principals, then let them go their way” – Ronald Reagan
Sure tea partiers have things to learn but there are lessons from NY 23 for the Republican Party operatives. The most important is that they need to think about the base when you select candidates. Too often name recognition and ability to bring in money are the only concerns. Now they will actually have to think about what the candidate has to say about the issues.
Dear Lynn2008,
You said, “They refuse to join it, support it, and help move it to the right. Instead, they stand outside of it and demand that it change for them.”
Wrongo Du` Maxami!
First we tried to do something about Jim Jeffords, and were told – No No No – Electability, sit down and shut up.
Then we tried to do something about Arlin Specter – and once again the leadership told us, it’s the numbers stupid. We need to have electable candidates. Wait, it’s not time yet.
So how did those turn out once again?
Oh yeah, Jeffords handed the keys to the senate at at critical time, the first year of the bush administration.
And Specter? He handed the magic number 60 to the democrats at a critical time, the first year of the Obama Administration.
So don’t tell me we were on the sidelines not trying to change the party from within. And NY 23 was Strike 3, the leadership is OUT!
jd
Rethought things and come to the conclusion that you are right. It is a shame that we lost all of Dede’s insider knowledge and connections like Working families party/ACORN, NARAL, Planned parenthood…. you know, all those important right wing advocacy groups.
Doh.
Winning one election with a RINO may win a battle, but in the long run it loses the war. We end up with McCains who support illegal immigrant amnesty that demoralize the base. One winning RINO can end up losing dozens of other elections in other states in the next election. It also encourages other RINO’s to seek favor with the MSM and further demoralize the base when they stab the conservatives in the back.
The problem with RINOs is what they will and wont vote for. Lets examine the voting records of Graham, McCain, Snowe, Collins, and lets not forget Specter. They voted over and over for portions of the democratic agenda and increased spending, increased taxes, supported amnesty, and it makes it look like there is no difference between democrats and republicans and anymore there isn’t. There is a difference between liberals and conservatives. Most of those that vote for the GOP vote that way because they expect conservatives.
The GOP needs to figure that out, pick their battles and their strategies and learn how to make principled stands on issues that will win elections. Most of the party establishment in Washington has already sold out those principles several times over and people are sick of it.
Excellent analysis, Dan. You make a point that I don’t think most of us newly active Conservatives have considered. You are right, Conservatives have to pay their dues and work their way up the ladder in the Republican party, just like anyone. So the lesson to take away from this is that more Conservatives need to get elected to state offices. Unfortunately for Conservatives, Dede Scozzafava proved herself with the Republican party bosses, but she wasn’t Conservative and we the people have made it very clear that we will be paying attention to that important detail from now on.
Poor analysis and complete ignoring of the numbers. If the idiotic Republican committee had put up a true fiscal conservative instead of the RINO, they would have won.
“A political party cannot be all things to all people. It must represent certain fundamental beliefs, which must not be compromised to political expediency, or simply to swell numbers…And if there are those that cannot subscribe to these principals, then let them go their way” – Ronald Reagan
JIMV, you didn’t need to refresh my memory on this matter. But the fact of the matter is that Ronald Reagan, in spite of this quote, governed in a way that was palatable to Independents and many Democracts, hence his large victories.
Not only this, however, but he also understood that in order to lead, you needed to attract a large variety of people and viewpoints.
He didn’t win his elections by throwing people out of the Republican Party because they didn’t agree with him.
Before Hoffamn there wasn’t a fiscal conservative on the ticket, my preferred choice couldn’t possibly have won.
After Hoffman entered the race, my choice didn’t win; but it at least had a chance.
From your writing, I should embrace a 100% loss with no chance of winning vs. a small chance of winning. Because losing principles, but getting someone with a magic -R after their name is good enough.
Since winning is more important than principles to you; I’m assuming you switched your affiliation to Dem yourself… right? Wouldn’t that be easier than trying to help non-Conservative Republicans win?
One form to fill out, and woo-hoo you’re on the winning side. Since you have no vested interest in any form of conservatism, and there’s nothing you wouldn’t throw away to “win” why not?
If this is somehow incorrect; what wouldn’t you throw away to win?
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