Jamie Weinstein

Kind of like it is never too late to say you’re sorry, it is never too early to prognosticate on the 2012 presidential race.

Yes, the election is three years away and, yes, there are a whole set of congressional elections to deal with in 2010. But you know potential candidates are already thinking about the race. So why not us?

My fellow Americans . . .

Guess who is also thinking about the 2012 presidential elections? Las Vegas. Or at least Sportsbook.com, which is based who knows where. We’ll just say Vegas.

You can go online right now and bet on who will be the Republican nominee in 2012, and who will be the president come inauguration day in January 2013.

And since Vegas is not in the business of losing money, the betting odds would presumably give us pretty good insight into who is in serious contention at this early point in time.

To win the Republican nomination, Sarah Palin has a slight edge over Mitt Romney with 7/2 odds. Romney’s odds stands at 4/1, immediately followed by former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee at 5/1 and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal at 6/1. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty has odds of 10/1 to win the Republican nomination.

While these odds seem reasonable, I do think the oddsmakers are overestimating Palin’s ability to win the Republican nomination if she decides to run. In a similar way, they are overestimating South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford’s prospects of success in the Republican primary process in 2012 with 12/1 betting odds. With his night job exposed as South Carolina’s Ambassador to Argentina, Sanford’s odds of getting the Republican nomination should stand somewhere closer to Joe the Plumber’s odds of being elected president, which, if you are interested, actually stand at 100/1 according to Sportsbook.

There are several potential dark horses out there who are not as out front as Palin, Huckabee and Romney. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Newt Gingrich running for president, or at least being a serious vice-presidential possibility. South Dakota Senator John Thune is getting some attention as a potential contender. According to his daughter, former Vice President Dick Cheney could also make a run.

And if General Dave Petraeus and General Stanley McChrystal are able to help bring success in Afghanistan, there is every reason to believe that Petraeus could be a serious political contender if he wanted to in 2012. After all, in terms of accomplishments, there would be no candidate who could hold a candle to a man who could in all sincerity and seriousness say that he brought stability to Iraq and Afghanistan. Sportsbook has him at 15/1 betting odds of becoming the Republican nominee and 40/1 to win the presidency. Anything could happen, right?

Outside of Vegas, the Des Moines Register conducted a poll of Iowans in early November on the popularity in the state of certain possible 2012 Republican contenders. Iowa is significant in the presidential primary process, of course, because it is traditionally the first state in the nation to award delegates on the way to the nomination through its caucus process.

Mike Huckabee came out best with the highest favorability rating at 54 percent overall and 70 percent among Republicans. Working now as a talk show host on Fox News, it would certainly be an interesting path to the Republican nomination, or possibly the presidency. He was followed in the poll in overall favorability rating by Palin, Gingrich and Romney—though Palin’s unfavorability rating was higher than her favorability rating. Some of the other potential contenders in the poll, like Jindal, may have fared better had they been better known in the state.

Perhaps most significantly at this point, Sportsbook is offering bets at 6/5 that a Republican will win the Presidency in 2012 and 5/8 odds that a Democrat will win. The Democratic nominee, of course, will almost certainly be Barack Obama unless Obama decides that he isn’t up to the task of a second term. Some of us would argue he wasn’t up to the task of a first term.

There has been some idle speculation about possible third-party candidates that may enter the presidential race and shake things up.  Former CNN host Lou Dobbs has stated that he is considering mounting a campaign for president. At least one writer has speculated that Fox News host Glenn Beck might make a run. With wide national audiences, these popular pundits could play spoilers, but probably wouldn’t have a serious shot at winning the presidency if they ran as third-party candidates (and probably couldn’t win the Republican nomination if they ran in the Republican primaries). If they were to run as third-party candidates, however, either of them would almost certainly harm the prospects of the Republican nominee by taking away support that would otherwise go to the Republican candidate.

The most serious third party threat could be Michael Bloomberg. The three-term mayor of New York could spend $1 billion or more of his own money in a race for the presidency. He would be a distinct long shot, like other possible third-party candidates, but he certainly could change the dynamics of the 2012 race much in the same way billionaire businessman Ross Perot did in 1992. Unlike Beck and Dobbs, it is unclear to me who Bloomberg would hurt worse, the Democrats or the Republicans.

Election Day 2012 is far away, but it’s not so long until presidential aspirants will have to start getting serious about making a run. If they are thinking about it, it can’t be wrong for us to be thinking about it as well.

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