bob teague:

A Tiger named AL

A story of global warming

Once upon a time, thousands of years ago there was clan of cavemen. The whole clan lived together in a cave and spent all their available hours hunting and gathering to keep from starving.
On day, while out hunting and gathering on his own, one of the clan members, Al, came across some strange tracks at the edge of the clan’s hunting area.. He wasn’t sure what they were from but they seamed really BIG. Young Al thought about it for awhile and decided that these tracks could be from the dreaded Saber toothed tiger.
Al had never actually seen a saber toothed tiger nor had he ever seen their tracks. But, thought Al, what else could the tracks be from?
Al rushed back to the clan cave to tell the others of what he had discovered. To young Al’s surprise most of the clan didn’t seem too concerned. Al said “ we need to take precautions to keep the saber toothed tiger from killing us” “ We need to build a high fence around our camp to keep the tiger out.”
To this the clan elders said “ Sorry Al, we don’t have time to stop hunting and gathering to build a fence. We have to hunt and gather every waking hour just to keep alive. We don’t have time to waste on fences to keep out a tiger that probably doesn’t even exist”.
“ But”, Cried Al” I saw the tracks, there may even be lots of saber toothed tigers about . I can’t be sure how many tracks I saw”
The clan elders sat young Al down and tried to explain things to him.
“First”, they said, “ You don’t know what those tracks were from. Could be from a big fluffy dog named Rex. Second, nobody around here has ever even seen a saber toothed tiger. We don’t even know if they still exist. Thirdly, Even if they do exist, we don’t know that they would hurt us. Fourthly, Even if all you said was true, we don’t know that a fence would keep the tiger out.”
“ Tell you what, You go out and get some really good solid information and we will re-visit the issue”

Well, young Al didn’t like that response. He vowed to do whatever he could to save his clan. Al went back and took a second look at the tracks he had found. The tracks had been trampled over by other animals and were hard to distinguish. Now it seemed to him there were many more tracks than he first thought. Maybe the tracks of a HUNDRED tigers. He also saw something that looked like a spot of blood. Probably from an eaten member of a neighboring clan. Also, he was able to calculate that the tiger was at least 10 feet tall. So now he had his proof. There were over a hundred tigers. They were ten feet tall and they loved to eat cave dwellers.
“ Now they will have to believe me and build that fence.” Thought Al.
When young Al went to the clan elders and explained of his very scientific findings he was very surprised that they still refused to stop hunting and gathering and build a fence.

When Al came back the next day and told the elders that he was now sure that there were a THOUSAND tigers and that they were 25 feet tall they still weren’t convinced. In fact they seemed even less convinced.

That’s when he knew what he had to do. He packed his bags and headed to Copenhagen. If those stupid clan elders wouldn’t believe him, He’d talk directly to Obama. That will get some action. Maybe even a few hundred million of those new paper dollars he keeps hearing about. Al wasn’t going to let no tiger cause any GORE in his cave.
Hey, Al thought as he headed for his private jet, He would need a last name when he got to Copenhagen. Maybe that would make a good last name, “Tiger”, He would be: “ Al Tiger” That would be a COOL name.

David:

This is continued from previous post

6. The premise here is that we know enough!

Science should never be settled if it was then the discoveries of Galileo would not have come about, or any list of thousands of Scientist that question what was known vs what was unknown. Science is about asking question, coming up with answers,and questioning the answers. The study of Climate is very new, and our knowledge of even just localized weather is still only scratching the surface, trying to understand something as large of scale as Global Climate past, present and future, is on a scale hard to comprehend. Even if CO2 emissions from all cars and industries was eliminated there is no way to truly know how the planet would respond, how does that effect plant life, the oceans, etc.. do we create a new problem with our solution? to many variables to know with absolute certainty.
This does not mean that we can not do anything or should not do anything but caution and moving with out jumping to conclusions would be wise.

7. This is a fear and shame tactic seeking an emotional response, not a scientific or rational one.

8. I lot of the projections are based in computer simulations, what a computer model says is going to happen does not always happen. While 15 years do not prove there is no AGW, it does point out that the models that are predicting it may have some flaws.

9. pass ?

10. Even if we concede the reliability of the data how to interpret the data can still be a problem. If you have a particularly hot or could century or two, will you know all the factors, Solar activity, volcanic, deforestation to fires or other factors that could impact temperature. Raw temperature data is not enough, and how to know all other variables contributing to that data gets more and more difficult the further back you go.

11. It is assumed that the impact of AGW will be negative, but this is somewhat dishonest, there will be both negative and positive impacts, it depends on where you are. Northern Canada and Russia could be come lush farm lands while other areas become deserts. Mankind has always adapted to to changing environment and climate. Even if it was not man-made the climate has changed before, and in those periods man adapted to the circumstances. Migrations of people, and development of countries has often be because of changes. Humanity coming to a catastrophic end would be unlikely. In fact if you want to respond to a changing environment perhaps we should be looking at how to create homes underwater, how to build cities and buildings that can resist hurricanes and tornadoes. How to store and grow things in desert environments, and come up with alternatives if things go the way predicted. Because even if you believe in AGW, there is no guarantee that any carbon police will stop it from happening, there are some that believe we are past the point of no-return. If so policies, and plans to help us adapt may be the only solution.

12- 15. I will not answer since it would be purely speculative and I have already address most of these in the answers above.

These are some good questions, I will be interested to see how others answer them, although I am afraid, instead of well thought out answers there will be a lot of attacking instead of answering.

bob:

Here is exactly what Dr Jones said: ( interview with BBC)

B – Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming

Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods.

John:

Two very different planets in two different galaxies: Party Planet and Yoga Planet. Party Planet overpopulated and depleted it’s natural resources and had to spread out to deplete other planets’ resources. Yoga planet lived in harmony with nature. Both planet’s sun went supernova. Yoga Planet had no survivors. Party Planet’s decendents are still partying!

Think of the future: throw a party!

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Once upon a time, thousands of years ago there was clan of cavemen. The whole clan lived together in a cave and spent all their available hours hunting and gathering to keep from starving.