Florida Governor Charlie Crist has denied it, but my bet is he is going to drop out of the Republican primary and run as an independent for U.S. Senate. It has been  suggested that by vetoing a Republican-backed education bill this week, Crist may be laying the groundwork to appeal to Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans if he decides to make the dramatic move.

And make the move he likely will. Crist wants to be Florida’s next senator and there is almost no way he can defeat former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio in the Republican primary.

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. When race began, Crist was a popular governor and Rubio was unknown to most of the state.

In May 2009, when the first poll was released on the matchup, Crist had a commanding 35 percent lead.  Since then, the electrifying Rubio has attracted legions of supporters and now, according the RealClearPolitics polling average, is besting Crist by nearly 23 percent.

It is hard to imagine how Crist could reverse Rubio’s momentum.  Having been Florida’s governor for three and a half years, voters know Crist well. It is clear that Florida’s Republicans have made a conscious and thought-through decision to support Rubio over Crist. Now, having rejected Crist, they are unlikely to turn back in large numbers no matter what Crist does. All Crist could hope for is some damning scandal that destroys Rubio and propels Crist to victory.

But so far, despite Crist’s best efforts to drudge something up on Rubio, nothing has stuck.

Crist probably hoped that he could halt Rubio’s momentum by whipping the youngster in March’s Fox News Sunday debate. Except, as it turned out, Rubio is the better debater and soundly bested the governor. So, now, if Crist wants to have any shot at being Florida’s next U.S. Senator, he will have to try to win the seat running as an independent.

If Crist makes this decision, conservatives should look forward to a common media narrative of the race to emerge. Pundits and political analysts will suggest that the Republican Party has moved so far to the right that a popular Republican governor suddenly discovered he was no longer Republican enough to fit within the party tent. Spurned by the party he served, MSNBC hosts will surely opine, Crist was forced to abandon his party and run as an independent because he was not ideologically pure enough.

Needless to say, this is bunk.

There are many reasons Rubio has outshined Crist, not least of which is that Rubio is one of the most exciting candidates running for election anywhere in the country this cycle. Sure, Rubio is more conservative than Crist, but the crucial difference between Rubio and Crist is not, as the media likes to suggest, an uber-conservative versus a steady moderate. The key dichotomy is the responsible versus the irresponsible. 

This dichotomy was on full display when the two met mano-a-mano in March on Fox News Sunday. It is certainly not politically advantageous to tell voters, especially Florida voters, that it is a necessity to increase the retirement age for Social Security in order to get America’s fiscal house in order. But any serious, responsible politician must be willing to tell his constituency that such a thing must be done.

During the Fox News debate, Rubio acted responsibly and treated Florida voters like adults. Crist, who the media likes to portray as the responsible candidate merely because he is the least conservative candidate, said raising the retirement age on Social Security was unthinkable.

“The idea of having a higher age for people to be able to be eligible for Social Security really flies in the face of an awful lot of my fellow Floridians,” Crist postured, “and it’s something that I would not advocate.”

“I think that has to be on the table,” Rubio proclaimed in contrast. “That’s got to be part of the solution, the retirement age gradually increases for people of my generation.”

So there it is in a nutshell. On one hand, you have a responsible candidate for Senate, Rubio, who tells voters something that might be unpopular but is undeniably true and necessary. On the other hand you have a completely irresponsible candidate, Crist, who tells voters he would pursue an untenable policy that will help bankrupt America in order to get votes.

A Quinnipiac University poll released on April 15 shows that Crist would start with a slight, though statistically insignificant, lead over Rubio if he decided to run as an independent. Democrat Kendrick Meek came in a distant third in the poll.  But Crist would not likely be able to maintain his 2 percentage point lead over Rubio in a three-way race. As Rubio becomes better known to independents, he is more likely to gain votes, just like he did when he became better known to Republicans. Crist, who is well known throughout the state, has nowhere to go but down.

For Crist to have any shot of becoming Florida’s next senator, he has no option but to run as an independent. But no matter what Crist ultimately decides, it is far more likely that when Florida’s next Senator is sworn in, his last name will be Rubio.